Policy, Consolidation, And The Path To 2026

Behind the record sales and venture capital deals, 2021 was also a year of significant structural change. Governments accelerated their electric mobility agendas, the competitive landscape began to consolidate, and long-term projections suggested the market was still in its early innings.

The Policy Landscape: Subsidies and Regulation

Throughout 2021, European governments continued to deploy financial incentives to encourage electric two-wheeler adoption. The EU's 2020 strategic goals had encouraged policymakers to provide incentives for low-carbon vehicles, particularly electric vehicles, and these policies were bearing fruit .

In Italy, despite the expiration of the "Bike Bonus," the government's broader commitment to green mobility remained strong. The country's effective incentive schemes had driven a 27.9% growth rate in the two-wheeler market in 2021-the highest in Europe .

In France, the government continued its multi-layered approach to encouraging cycling and e-mobility, contributing to the country's record e-bike sales .

Beyond purchase subsidies, European cities were implementing the "15-Minute City" concept-initially popularized in Paris-which prioritized active transportation and reduced car dependency. Almost every major European city had added open streets, pop-up bike lanes, widened pedestrian paths, or outdoor dining spaces, and these changes were becoming permanent .

The Rise of the 48V Lithium-Ion Standard

As the European electric two-wheeler market matured, certain technology standards began to emerge. The 48V battery segment was expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.19% during the forecast period, driven by the technology's optimal balance of cost, safety, and performance .

Lithium-ion batteries had become the dominant battery type, with vendors such as Askoll, Pierer Mobility, and others using them at scale. The application of lithium batteries was widely viewed as "the future of electric transportation in Europe" .

Removable battery technology was also gaining momentum. In 2020, the removable battery segment was valued at $4.90 billion, and demand was expected to increase among early EV consumers and adopters. The ability to charge batteries anywhere-rather than needing access to a dedicated charging point-addressed one of the key barriers to EV adoption .

Source: Europe Electric Two-Wheeler Market Report 

The Competitive Landscape: Consolidation and Asian Entry

The European electric two-wheeler market had become more consolidated, with large vendors such as Askoll, Piaggio, Energica, Pierer Mobility, and BMW controlling the majority of sales .

However, Asian OEMs were moving aggressively into Europe via distributor and importer agreements and M&A operations. These companies were setting out to expand their manufacturing footprint in the region and leverage local brand awareness. According to Frost & Sullivan, this would mean increased competition in entry-level segments, accelerated technology adoption, and an added push toward electrification and shared mobility.

European scooter OEMs were taking two distinct routes to push the electrification agenda:

Leveraging existing brands via product range extension

Launching new dedicated product divisions or new brands entirely 

The Price Challenge: Raw Materials and Inflation

Despite the positive demand environment, 2021 saw significant cost pressures that would impact 2022 pricing. An increase in raw material and manufacturing costs, aggravated by logistics and procurement challenges, led all major OEMs to plan listing price increases from 2022 .

The critical challenge was managing dependence on imported lithium batteries, primarily from China. As European manufacturers sought to localize production, battery supply remained a vulnerability.

The Frost & Sullivan analysis suggested that while price increases might partially impact market demand, initial feedback from dealership networks indicated that customers were likely to accept such increases given the strong value proposition of electric two-wheelers .

Market Projections: €15.55 Billion by 2026

Looking beyond 2021, the long-term outlook for Europe's electric two-wheeler market remained strongly positive. According to the Europe Electric Two-Wheeler Market Report 2021-2026, the market was projected to reach €15.55 billion by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 13.12% .

In volume terms, the market was expected to reach 7.915 million units by 2026, driven by:

Increasing concern over natural resource utilization

Government commitments to make transportation entirely electric by 2030

Rising willingness to pay for high-quality, high-performance electric motorcycles, particularly in the Netherlands, Germany, and Switzerland

M&A and new production facility development by vendors 

The less than 5kW power segment-which includes most e-bikes and entry-level e-scooters-led the market in 2020, accounting for 76.28% of value and 77.40% of volume. This segment was expected to continue its dominance given the larger number of vehicles manufactured and used across Europe .

Implications for KUKIRIN

For KUKIRIN, the 2021 market environment presented both opportunities and challenges. On the opportunity side:

Record consumer demand across all major European markets

Growing acceptance of e-mobility as a mainstream transportation choice

Expanding infrastructure and policy support

On the challenge side:

Intense competition from both established European brands and aggressive Asian entrants

Supply chain disruptions and component shortages

Rising raw material costs putting pressure on margins

Increasing regulatory complexity across different European markets

The companies that would succeed in this environment were those that could balance quality and compliance with cost competitiveness-the same formula that had driven KUKIRIN's growth in previous years.

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